What is the record for climate predictions?
Current prediction: The average surface temperature of the Earth is likely to increase by 2 to 11.5°F (1.1-6.4°C) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980-1990, with a best estimate of 3.2 to 7.2°F (1.8-4.0°C) – IPCC 2007
Past climate predictions: http://www.lowerwolfjaw.com/agw/quotes.htm
So how are we doing so far?
0% correct and counting.
okay, let me rant: the world’s biggest problem is that its TOO COLD! the hottest areas in the world are the most abundent with life (if the deserts got rain theyd be jungles too), humans can inhabit everywhere on earth, except for the cold places. proving that our planets problem is the heat. global warming peaked in 1998, and its been going down from there. uts been proven that global warming is bs sent out by scientists so people vote democratic, they jsut arent publicizing that because people would litter more. global warming is bullsh*t, now go enjoy your lives
and dare i point out that is we do EVERYTHING in our power to reduce global warming the temperature would decrease by a tenth of a degree.thats right, humans made the worlds temperature go up 1/10 of a degree (celcius). the world is a big place and its made to stay, its pretty hard to f*ck that up.
back in the dinosaur ages (it was literally 3 times as hot back then) there was more life than any other point of time on earth
The record is excellent, if you actually look at the science instead of cherrypicking quotes from the mainstream media as is done in your link.
This is what I’ve been saying for years; these so-called experts cannot be trusted.
IPCC v. mainstream media – well, you have what looks to be several hundred statements about incorrect predictions by the latter. Let’s review the former:
IPCC First Assessment Report:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report
Main predictions:
>> An increase in average global temperatures of about .3 C per decade under BAU circumstances, ± .2 C, and .2 or .1 C per decade until models that incorporate increasing levels of controls.
Let’s see:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
Well, so far this prediction is true. From 1990 to 2000, we saw a deviation of about .25 C, and from 2000 to present we saw an increase of roughly .16/.17 C (the data set does not seem to be complete – it really shouldn’t be anyways since we’re in 2010).
Consider global efforts to curb emissions, these predictions are actually pretty accurate.
>> Sea levels will rise by about 20 cm by 2030 and 65 cm by the end of the 21st century.
Let’s take a look at past sea level rises:
http://www.wildwildweather.com/forecastblog/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/700px-recent_sea_level_rise.png
http://membrane.com/sidd/topexjason2004.jpg
Within the last century there was a sea level rise of about 20cm. Continuing this trend, as it seems rather linear, we will achieve another gain of about 20cm. However, current warming trends and sea level rise trends suggest that this curve will shift closer towards these predictions:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/04/0907765106.full.pdf
Currently, as of the Fourth Assessment Report, the predictions are 18-59cm, which is on the conservative side:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Predicting-future-sea-level-rise.html
So if the prediction will be wrong, odds are that it will be too low of a prediction.
I believe we’ve already has posts which linked to the article you referenced. The list is essentially out of context quotes taken from journalists, many of the quotes, when read in context, take on a completely new meaning. Only 8 of the quotes have any scientific credibility to them…
The first non journalist quote is from Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (1905) and has nothing at all to do with climate change, it’s a personal weather observation from Dr Adolf Hoel and was included in a transmission from the US Consul in Norway to the State Department in Washington. It concerned the amount of ice in the waters off Spitzbergen, this was being surveyed by Dr Hoel’s team for geological purposes.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/toc/mwre/50/11
The second scientific extract from your list is from Science Magazine (1970) and again it has absolutely nothing to do with climate change. The article relates to glaciation in the Pleistocene.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/170/3958/630
The third reliable quote is the one from the American Meteorological Society (1975). I don’t know why this has been included as it’s absolutely accurate especially when you read it in context. It is, after all, a discussion about crop yields.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477%281975%29056%3C1078%3AWAWF%3E2.0.CO%3B2
The fourth credible source is Nature (1975). This is taken from the article that appeared in Nature entitled “Causes and Effects of Global Cooling” – this doesn’t appear to be online anywhere so I had to read it from my own archived copy. The global cooling issue has been addressed on countless occasions. There was concern that the climate could cool down, it was not remotely like the scenarios depicted in the media and in fact, the scientific observations were absolutely correct. More here http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AsuJx7PA3wjUNTmUlPcg8cDsy6IX;_ylv=3?qid=20100626014608AAhwst8&show=7#profile-info-VLxU5112aa
The firth reliable source is again the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (1980) and is again discussing global cooling – see above.
Next is the article from Science Daily (Jan 2007) predicting 2007 to be the warmest year on record globally. The prediction was wrong, it was only the 2nd warmest year on record.
Another quote from Science Daily follows (April 2007). The prediction was for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. In the end there were 15 names storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes – overall accuracy 77%. Good but not all that good.
Finally comes another quote from Science Daily (Oct 2007). Here the NOAA predicted warmer than average temps over much of the US during the winter period. And what happened? 21 states above normal temps, 12 states below normal and 16 at or close to normal.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071009_outlook.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php?report=national&year=2008&month=ann