Just how accurate are these climate models that predict huge temperature increases over the next century?
They predict an increase of around 5 degrees Celsius, but is it even possible to predict the climate that far into the future?
They predict an increase of around 5 degrees Celsius, but is it even possible to predict the climate that far into the future?
They’re not very accurate. If you put in past data and then predict from 1900 to 2000 it is completely wrong.
About as accurate as Madam Lasagna’s Crystal Ball.
I guess you’ll find out by the end of the century.
In a phrase "Very Inaccurate" as accurate and representative temperature measurements from satellites and balloons show that the planet has cooled significantly in the last two or three years, losing in only 18 months 15% of the claimed warming which took over 100 years to appear — that warming was only one degree Fahrenheit (half of one degree Celsius) anyway, and part of this is a systematic error from ground station readings which are inflated due to the ‘urban heat island effect’ i.e. local heat retention due to urban sprawl, not global warming…and it is these, ‘false high’ ground readings which are then programmed into the disreputable climate models, which live up to the GIGO acronym — garbage in, garbage out so I doubt very much that any climate models can predict future temperatures!
Probably about as accurate as having a blind monkey throw a dart at a list of stocks and ending up with a winner.
Some of those same scientists were the ones that predicted the "Coming Ice Age" in the 1970s
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html
http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
just answer one simple question,have any of the doom and gloom predictions ever come true,like the ice age to be in the 80′s.no.oil will run out by 2000,no.the people will die by the millions because of over population,predicted in the early 70′s,no. and there are hundreds more all with the same answer,no
No, don’t worry..
Man,turn on the weather network.You know what? They can’t tell you what it will be like in a week..bwahahaha..It’s a joke.Sure the climate is changing,always has and always will.
Well it depends on who you talk to. Here in the South we are very fortunate to have the most famous Chinese meteorologist of all time..Useallee Wong. I will pose your question to him next time I see him.
5 C sounds like a best worst case, if we do nothing, but if the tundra doesn’t blow its methane.
There are some excellent web sites, e.g.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/newsarchives.php
that’s http://www.skepticalscience.com
/newsarchives.php
that rebut the catalogue of zombie (dead but won’t lie down) denialist objections one by one, like richie’s "heat island" and "balloon temperature" stories, with real scientific data and references to publications. This site will give you the real data with real links to the actual research papers written by real scientists.
It will also give the background to the "1970s ice age prediction" story. Actually, warming was described remarkably accurately in a 1956 Scientific American article.
The scientific answer is, not very accurate. See http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001319verification_of_ipcc.html
about as acurate as the scientist in the seventies who said we would have an ice age about now
Climate scientists have been using models to predict global temperature changes for about 20 years now. Even 20 years ago when climate models were much less sophisticated than they are now, the predictions were quite good:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hansens-1988-projections/
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/03/26/recent-climate-observations-compared-to-ipcc-projections/
Because short-term effects tend to cancel eachother out over the long-term, climate models are actually most accurate predicting global temperature changes about 40 years in advance.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/09/decadal-predictions/
This FAQ on climate models is very helpful as well:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/faq-on-climate-models/langswitch_lang/bg/
lol have a look at the 10 day forecast of the weather stations. They change it every day and it is only slightly accurate for 2 days.
I would suggest they have no clue.
BTW climategate and the "The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t"
They haven’t been right so far, so I don’t pay them any heed at all.
Honestly – if you call the 1-900 number and the guru goes 5-11 or worse every week, you might think about calling someone else for your Superbowl pick – or giving up gambling entirely.